{"id":4704,"date":"2026-06-20T01:06:01","date_gmt":"2026-06-20T01:06:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oidaijsd.com\/?page_id=4704"},"modified":"2026-06-20T01:06:01","modified_gmt":"2026-06-20T01:06:01","slug":"volume-19-issue-07-pg-57-68-2026","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/oidaijsd.com\/?page_id=4704","title":{"rendered":"Volume 19, Issue 07, Pg. 57-68, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

OIDA International Journal of Sustainable Development<\/strong>
\nOpen-access peer-reviewed journal\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

https:\/\/doi.org\/10.64211\/oidaijsd190705<\/a>
\n\"\"<\/p>\n

Methodology of Threats Outlooks Development to EU Civil Security<\/strong><\/p>\n

Hryhorii Sytnyk 1<\/sup>, Tetiana Palamarchuk 2<\/sup>, Halyna Zavoritnya 3<\/sup>, <\/strong>Yevhenii Taran 4<\/sup><\/strong>, Nataliia Klymenko<\/strong> 5
\n<\/sup><\/strong>1,3,5 <\/sup>Department of Global and National Security, Educational and Scientific Institute of Public Administration and Civil Service, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, 60 Volodymyrska Str., 01033, Kyiv, Ukraine.
\n2,4 <\/sup>Educational and Scientific Institute of Public Administration and Civil Service, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, 60 Volodymyrska Str., 01033, Kyiv, Ukraine.
\n*Corresponding author: sgp1000@ukr.net<\/a><\/p>\n

Volume 19, Issue 07, Pg. 57-68, 2026.<\/p>\n

Abstract:<\/strong> The growth of multidimensional natural, man-made, terrorist and cyber threats creates a new level of systemic complexity for the civil security of the European Union and necessitates the modernization of analytical approaches to their forecasting. The relevance of the study is enhanced by the fact that traditional risk assessment tools do not take into account hidden correlations, cascading effects and nonlinear interactions between different categories of threats. The purpose of the study is to develop and scientifically substantiate an integrated methodology for forecasting threats to EU civilian security based on international statistics and modern econometric methods. The methodological framework includes descriptive time series analysis, principal component analysis (PCA) to identify the latent structure of multidimensional threats, and ARIMA and VAR econometric models to quantify the dynamics and cross-sectoral interactions of risks. The results showed that natural and man-made threats demonstrate steady upward trends, terrorist activity is characterized by wave-like dynamics, and cyber threats are growing most intensively and least predictably. PCA allowed us to identify three integral latent components \u2013 digital instability, environmental and technological vulnerability, and socio-political turbulence \u2013 which together explain 72.6% of the total variance. ARIMA models revealed the asymmetry of long-term trends, and VAR analysis demonstrated the growing interdependence between digital and man-made risks, indicating the formation of a new contour of cascading threats. The practical significance of the results lies in the possibility of applying the developed methodology to improve the effectiveness of strategic planning, improve early warning systems, formulate response scenarios and support management decisions in the field of EU civil security.<\/p>\n

Keywords<\/strong>:<\/strong> econometric models, man-made threats, natural threats, terrorist risks, threat forecasting<\/p>\n

Full-text paper download here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

OIDA International Journal of Sustainable Development Open-access peer-reviewed journal\u00a0 https:\/\/doi.org\/10.64211\/oidaijsd190705 Methodology of Threats Outlooks Development to EU Civil Security Hryhorii Sytnyk 1, Tetiana Palamarchuk 2, Halyna Zavoritnya 3, Yevhenii Taran 4, Nataliia Klymenko 5 1,3,5 Department of Global and National Security, Educational and Scientific Institute of Public Administration and Civil Service, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, 60 Volodymyrska Str., 01033, Kyiv, Ukraine. 2,4 Educational and Scientific Institute of Public Administration and Civil Service, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, 60 Volodymyrska Str., 01033, Kyiv, Ukraine. *Corresponding author: sgp1000@ukr.net Volume 19, Issue 07, Pg. 57-68, 2026. Abstract: The growth of multidimensional natural, man-made, terrorist and cyber threats creates a new level of systemic complexity for the civil security of the European Union and necessitates the modernization of analytical approaches to their forecasting. The relevance of the study is enhanced by the fact that traditional risk assessment tools do not take into account hidden correlations, cascading effects and nonlinear interactions between different categories of threats. The purpose of the study is to develop and scientifically substantiate an integrated methodology for forecasting threats to EU civilian security based on international statistics and modern econometric methods. The methodological framework includes descriptive time series Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/oidaijsd.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/4704"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/oidaijsd.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/oidaijsd.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oidaijsd.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oidaijsd.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4704"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/oidaijsd.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/4704\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4706,"href":"https:\/\/oidaijsd.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/4704\/revisions\/4706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/oidaijsd.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4704"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}