OIDA International Journal of Sustainable Development
Open-access peer-reviewed journal
https://doi.org/10.64211/oidaijsd190108
Economic Sustainability in Agricultural Commodity Markets: A Study of Trends, Patterns, and Market Resilience
Shifa Fathima A 1 and Safeer Pasha M 2*
1 Research Centre in Commerce, St. Claret College, Autonomous, India.
2 PG Department of Commerce, St. Claret College, Autonomous, India.
*Corresponding author:safeer@claretcollege.edu.in
Volume 19, Issue 01, Pg. 119-130, 2026
Abstract: This paper examines the economic sustainability of some critical agricultural commodities in India (Guar Seeds, Guar Gum, Castor Seeds) during the period between 2015 and 2025. The study analyzes the pattern of prices, structural stability, volatility behavior, and market interactions using daily price data with a view to evaluating market resilience and efficiency. First, stationarity of the series of returns is established through the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, which controls the appropriateness of time series models. The Bai-Perron multiple break test shows structural breaks, and the CUSUM test ensures that segments of stability exist in the data. In the tests, these periods are identified as showing a dramatic change in market behavior and are included in the modeling that follows.
Their studies are done in the form of trends and autocorrelation of the movements of prices of all commodities. The GARCH (1, 1) model has been employed in the study to capture both volatility clustering and persistence. It has been demonstrated that the effects of shocks on market volatility are likely to recur, indicating that markets are somewhat resilient against these shocks.
Moreover, Granger causality between futures and spot market returns is performed for each commodity, and it can be shown that there is a bidirectional causation in the majority of the commodities. This shows that the two markets are efficient in the discovery of price and the existence of a good flow of information between them.
In general, the results have great significance for the necessity to take structural breaks and the persistence of volatility in the analysis of commodity markets. The findings are beneficial to policymakers, traders, and farmers in informing them on how they can enhance risk management practices and assist in the sustainable growth of the market. Such detailed analysis leads to a better understanding of the dynamic behavior of agricultural commodity markets in India over ten years.
Keywords: Economic Sustainability, Agricultural Commodity Markets, Market Trends, Price Patterns, Market Resilience
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